Beak got a little dry last week, time to get back to wet or die trying. Let’s see what we got:
Revenge is a dish best served cold, unless you’re in Tallahassee.
Louisville +6.5 @ FSU: Look Louisville beat the piss out of FSU last year. The Final Score was 63-20. You don’t forget a loss like that, and you definitely want to return the favor as bad as you possibly can. I am taking the ‘Noles to cover 6.5 points. They are taking this game personally. Louisville does not have the team they did last year. $250 on FSU.
Why in God’s name would we stop betting on Purdue?
Purdue -9 @ Rutgers: I mean the Boilermakers have been solid gold for A-Train Corp. We are going to keep riding out this win streak ATS of theirs. $200 on Purdue; only because an early game in Piscataway New Jersey is a hard game to get up for and it’s possible they only win by one score.
Sure bet a third early game….
Pitt +8 @ Duke: Like the Blue Devils here I gotta say, this feels like a 24-10 win for Duke. The Blue Devils have played some tough teams lately and are probably ready to play someone with a little less talent. $100 on Duke.
Kentucky +12 @ Mississippi State: Rolling the dice that the bulldogs at home behind the cacophony of the cowbell can cover a 12 point spread. I hope stingray Steve can will us to a cover in Starkville. $100 on the Bulldogs.
Central Florida -7 @ Navy: I don’t feel great about this pick because I hate gambling when triple option teams are involved. (Usually, my most profitable gambling win ever was betting against GT vs LSU in the 2008 Peach Bowl. I just knew the LSU front seven would simply out muscle the Yellow Jackets up front and I put a pretty penny on it. ) I digress. UCF is on a nice streak ATS that we are gonna ride, and their head coach Scott Frost is very familiar with the option; having run it himself at Nebraska. $100 on UCF.
Scott Fucking Frost lucky bastard won a National Title off a kicked ball.
The Primetime Games are a lot of fun but I don’t have a great handle on them.
Michigan +9.5 @ Penn State: This line opened at 12 and immediately got bet down to 9.5. I obviously love Michigan at 12. That line jumped off the page when I printed out the initial spreads. I love it a lot less at 9.5. This game could be very competitive throughout and still end 21-10 Penn State. That’s a cover at 12, not so at 9.5. Penn State really hasn’t played anyone good, and Michigan can’t score. This game has under potential but the number is so low (44.5) and the game is at night. This game has me staying away, but if I had to bet I’d take Michigan to cover. Stay Away unless you got it early.
USC +3.5 @ Notre Dame: This was a game where I liked the over when it first came out, but then was quickly bet from 60.5 to 65.5. I guess people were seeing what I see. A USC team that will have a hard time handling the pounding of the ND rushing attack & a QB on the other side in Darnold; who has the potential to pick apart the ND secondary. I see a close high scoring game, and the spread is telling me that this is a Stay Away as well. Gun to my head I take Notre Dame at home.
Fresno State +7.5 @ SDSU: Yes, we took a loss with SDSU last week & the fact this line opened at 11 and is now -7.5 scares me more than a little bit. I would have thought this line opens at 11 and moves to 13. I’m gonna throw money at the Aztecs again $150 on SDSU to cover at home.
The picks feel lack luster this week, I know I promise to bet the “Big” games but I just feel like I have the death touch right now. I’m a real Eddie Mush. Who ever I pick is gonna lose. This is why I stood firm with teams I think I have a feel for.
4 thoughts on “College Football Friday: Back to Beak Wetting.”
ND -3, Syracuse +17.5, Zona -2.5, Iowa State +7. Calculate the VIG when you’re keeping track of your records, makes you look like a newb without it.
I keep track of the Vig. I’m just trying to make everything as simple as possible. If you noticed I make all the bets ATS on the site, and don’t tease or parlay because it’s just easier. I can drop the Vig tax next time I tally up. I like most gamblers like to pretend that it does not exist.
First time checking out the blog and I really like it. Great mix of insight and humor. Look forward to winning some money today on college picks. Keep it up ATrain.
I had a bad week, hope you didn’t lose too bad. I like this weeks picks a lot more.