Wet the Beak: NFL Week One.

Let me start with a small mea culpa. When I looked at the lines in College Football this week only two games stuck out to me in a sea of college games and over/unders. They were both early kickoffs, so I decided to skip the Friday “Wet the Beak” and just write one for the NFL.

The mea culpa is the fact that those picks were Houston -3.5 over Arizona, and Mississippi State -7 at Kansas State. Worse than losing a bet is not betting the games that you had pegged. It is a gut-wrenching feeling. As I type this KSU is only down 14 and could still get the cover (I doubt it MSU is a squad) but Arizona is finished and it’s not close. (38-0 as I type this) What hurts the most about the Houston score is that now everyone knows that Tate+Sumlin is a huge downgrade from Tate+RichRod. I won’t be able to fade Arizona ever again. This was the one chance.

There were a couple other games I had slight leans on in CFB.

One was FIU +2 at Old Dominion a line so fishy it prompted immediate research. Sure enough, I found out that FIU’s star running back was shot along with an offensive lineman. 

That would explain why ODU is favored in a game. It now becomes a stay away. ODU terrible last season, we made money fading them. I’m still tempted to be against them despite them being at home in a night game. What if FIU rally’s around the fallen teammates and wins it for them? I got no play here.

Memphis -6.5 over Navy this is the Barton Simmons special. As my favorite College Football analyst Barton Simmons picked the Memphis Tigers to cover here…I’m gonna follow him on that bet.

 

OK, Enough College…NFL time.

I’m just gonna pick every game ATS but the ones I want to bet I’ll put in BOLD.

EARLY GAMES:

Cleveland +4.5 @ Pittsburgh. This Browns Pick is based mostly on history. The Browns went (1-15 in 2016) and (0-16 in 2017) the lone win came vs Pitt. Three of the four games played in that span was extremely close. Why should I expect different this week? The Browns are better this season, they could win this outright.

San Fran +6.5 @ Minnesota.

Minnesota defense is good and defense likes to show up early in the season while offense usually takes a while to get in sync. I think San Fran scores a low number and Minny covers.

Cinci +2.5 @ Indy.

I hate these teams and I don’t want to touch this game, my gut says the Bengals but that’s going against the Home-Dog with a QB advantage…which goes against my principals. Stay Away. My pick is Cinci because they have a better D and RB. What scares me is that if the Colts fixed their O-Line and can protect Luck they might be able to outscore people. The Over 48 is tempting but like I said before Offense can take a bit to find it’s rhythm.

Buffalo +7.5 @ Baltimore.

In the NFL sometimes teams win by 10 points or more. Usually when the opponent brings a water pistol to a gunfight, like the Bills bringing Nathan Peterman on the road to Baltimore. I say the Ravens score a non-offensive TD and cover.

Jacksonville -3 @ NY Giants.

Giants are a home dog, mostly healthy and I think Eli Manning is still better than Bortles. So I like the G-Men here as a home underdog.

Tampa Bay +9.5 @ New Orleans.

New Orleans but for some reason I don’t want to bet this even though I can’t fathom the Saints winning by less than 10.

Houston +6.5 @ New England.

If I were to bet this game I’d bet the Texans. This game is very close to being in bold. If it was +7 and not +6.5 it would be.

Tennessee -1.5 @ Miami.

I think both these teams suck and that the Titans are overrated. Basically, I just don’t like Marcus Mariota, I don’t believe in him yet. He has to prove it. Go crush this Dolphins team on the road and I’ll think about liking you Marcus. I’d probably take the Titans because the line is basically a pick’em, but if it went any higher I might like Miami.

Afternoon Games:

Kansas City +3.5 @ LA Chargers.

I wish this was three and that Joey Bosa was playing, that’s why it’s a slight stay away but I lean toward LA.

Seattle +3 @ Denver.

No idea about this game, probably the under is a good play. I’ll pick Seattle don’t feel good about it at all.

Dallas +3 @ Carolina.

We have taken a stand against Dallas. This week we are on team Cam. Bet the Panth.

Washington +1 @ Arizona.

Arizona has sneaky home field advantage and Washington travels a long way. I think Washinton has a better team but I think maybe Arizona wins this at home and it ends up being one of their 4-6 wins. Stay away but I lean on Zona based on being at home.

Sunday Night:

BEARS +7.5 @ Green Bay.

You know I got Da Bears. If you’re feeling saucy bet it money line. The Bear Defense is ready for it’s coming out party. 

Monday Night:

Jets +6.5 @ Detroit.

J-e-t-s…Jets Jets Jets. I got the damn Jets. 

Rams -4.5 @ Oakland.

This line has moved 4.5 points from a pick’em. It’s still not enough. The Rams just have a better roster from top to bottom. I’d take the rams, not scared of the home underdog factor. 

 

For the season we like:

the Jets over 6 wins.

the Raiders under 7.5 wins.

the Bears over 6.5 wins.

the Browns over 5.5 wins.

Longshots:

Jets 16-1 to win AFC East. I asked myself what if Tom Brady went down? The Pats don’t have the backup at QB they used too.

Bears 13/2 to win NFC North. The Bears seem to have a favorable schedule and a good defense.

Chargers 9/1 and Texans 10/1 to win the AFC. These are the teams with long odds in the AFC that I like…the NFC just has too many good teams. I’m hoping Watson doesn’t lose two seasons in a row to injury. Healthy Watson means a Houston team that’s scary as hell.

I think the NFC is really gonna be decided by what teams stay healthy, as injuries will weed out a few good teams and make them average. The Packers seem to have a slot in the playoffs every year that Rodgers is healthy but he gets hurt more and more.

 

 

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