Before we start shoutout to Coach Ed Orgeron, who fought through bad call and a hostile crowd to get LSU a gritty sec win. He brought in Joe Burrow and committed to him. Burrow has shown in wins over Miami and Auburn that he is the QB that this Uber talented roster has needed, a smart distributor. He doesn’t do too much, he plays in the system, and he gets the ball to world-class athletes who make plays. LSU now has what they have always needed to compete: Balance on Offense. Stacking the box vs LSU now carries a degree of risk that it simply didn’t a season ago. This team is fun to watch, I don’t think they can compete with a Tua led Alabama team but I can’t wait to see them try.
We went 3-3 on Saturday after Starting a promising 2-0. As usual, the alma mater let me down just like they always do. Feel free to fade any picks made on The University of Missouri Tigers. My other alma mater The University of Washington did cover (although I said they wouldn’t) to continue the streak of missing on the teams whose schools I attended. The Huskies game at least went under, so we won half our bets on that game.
We also won with Iowa State and Army. Ohio State vs TCU I watched in its entirety, although we lost by .5 a point, we should have won the bet. Ohio State missed one two-point conversion and ended the game kneeling in FG range. Thanks, Ryan Day, you know good coaches win great coaches cover. Ask Saban. Saban makes people in Alabama rich. Enough of the mediocre college game, onto the pro’s.
Games were not at all jumping off the page this week like they did last week. I’m gonna keep it a little tighter this week and just pick the best bets and a few leans, not all the games.
Chargers -7.5 @ Buffalo: I’m taking the Chargers despite this having all the makings of a Bills cover. A long road trip, west to east and a 1:00pm kickoff is usually a disaster for the West Coast team. The Chargers have no Joey Bosa and it’s the Bills home opener. I don’t care, the Bills suck…people need to realize this. The Chargers are not going 0-2 and I think if they win, they will win by 10 or more. It’s not Nathan Peterman but still, fade the Bills.
Kansas City +5.5 @ Pittsburgh: So public money is 85% on the Chiefs and the lines move is the other way? That’s usually not good for joe public and I want to make the Joe Public play on the Chiefs. The Steelers have a real home advantage and that scares me, this isn’t San Diego so this game will tell me a lot about Mahomes poise. A slow track will limit the explosive plays for KC. These teams are just to close for me not to take the points and the Chiefs. I’m sorry, I’m dumb Joe Public.
Over 49 points: Browns @ Saints: Probably another sucker bet, but I have this sneaky suspicion that the Browns are gonna score in the dome, and so is Drew Brees. The Saints are one of those teams I hate to ever bet on…so I’m actually not gonna play this and just call it a lean, not a best bet.
I like the 49ers -6 at home against Detriot. Matt Patricia had the Lions looking like shit at home, let’s see him on the road in a short week. We’ll call this a lean.
Another lean for me is towards the Colts +6 @ Washington. I want to see the Redskins beat Andrew Luck not Sam Bradford before I want to give away six points in this game. This was almost a best bet.
New England -1 @ Jacksonville: So Basically a pick’em: This is a principle play on New England and Belichick. The Jags D is scary as hell maybe the best unit I saw on Sunday, Tom Brady will find a way, and I like the Pats D to bottle up Bortles.
NY Giants +3 @ Dallas: Principle play of better team getting points, I like the Giants to win outright.
Seahawks -3 @ Chicago: Jump on this at 3 if you see it, at 3.5 I like it a lot less. Bobby Wagner is not playing for Seattle, he is a huge part of that defense, especially in pass defense in the middle of the field. This will open things up for the Bears and I say they win by 10. But at -3.5 a junk Wilson TD at the end could push your win to a loss, so find it at 3 if you can. I trust you, Mitch, you got this.